'The Frontrunners': 2021 Oscar Predictions, Round I - A Best Picture Stalemate Until February
With 2020 over and done, we take a look at the 2021 Oscar race as a whole and see where everything is at before the submission deadline in late February 2021.
After a year of isolation and hopelessness due to COVID-19, the calendar flip into 2021 felt more like a sigh of relief than a celebration of the future. Globally, we are still in the midst of getting the vaccine to as many people as possible, and taking the appropriate safety precautions needed until they receive it. The world is basically at a standstill, waiting for life to go back to the way things were almost a year ago.
And with life imitating art, that is where we are also at with the 2021 Oscar season, a standstill. We rolled into the new calendar year with the same contenders quietly fighting it out for Hollywood’s biggest honor. If you go by the critical consensus and end of the year critics groups, Chloe Zhoa’s “Nomadland” seems to be ahead of the pack. Right behind it would be Lee Isaac Chung’s “Minari,” Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman,” George C. Wolfe’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” and Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods.” Absent from a lot of these lists are Netflix’s heavy hitters “Mank” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and Amazon’s “One Night in Miami.”
As fascinating as it is to see these groups come together and give us a wide variety of winners, these winners mean next to nothing when it comes to Oscar nominations and wins. It is clear that “Nomadland” is the critical darling of this year, with the highest Metacritic score of 96%, the highest of any film in the race. While it deserves a lot of its praises, the idea of the Academy embracing a film like this feels like a stretch. “Nomadland” is a very quiet, melancholy picture that the Academy usually honors with nominations but not wins. I’d love to be proven wrong, not just for Best Picture but for Zhao in Best Director as well making history. But as mentioned before, there are two films standing idly by, waiting for the industry awards to get behind them.
As of now, the current predictions of a Netflix Best Picture/Director split are still at the top of the leader board. Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and David Fincher’s “Mank” represent the top two films from arguably the top studio of 2020. Netflix has been gunning for a Best Picture win over the last couple of years, and with so many horses in the race, they are determined as hell to win it at this year’s Oscars. While “Mank” feels more like a director and below the line champion, “Chicago 7” has the makings of a traditional Best Picture winner in the vein of Ben Affleck’s “Argo.” It’s an accessible movie for all to enjoy and from one of Hollywood’s most celebrated writers with an all-star cast. Though it doesn’t seem to be the most hard-hitting film in terms of political issues, it packs enough of a wallop to get most parties on board. We arent’ looking at another “Green Book” fiasco; this is a movie the Academy can rest easy in crowning their champion.
As of right now, the only film I can see unseating “Chicago 7” as the frontrunner for Best Picture is Regina King’s “One Night in Miami.” In her directorial debut, King’s beautiful tale about a conversation between four of the biggest cultural figures in American history is not only incredibly timely, but it’s something right up the Academy’s alley. And if there is still Netflix bias amongst the voting body, look out for Amazon to be embraced with the Oscar for Best Picture for one of the best films of the year that’s extremely accessible.
There are still a couple of films that haven’t broken into the race just yet that couple drop and surprise us all. Those titles include “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “The United States vs Billy Holiday,” “Malcolm and Marie.” “Judas and the Black Messiah” seems to be the strongest entry, considering it already has debuted a trailer and there is a lot of buzz surrounding Daniel Kaluuya’s performance. It would be interesting if it came down to “Judas” and “Chicago 7” considering they both contain cinematic depictions of Fred Hampton and parallel themes. They might split the vote and something like “Mank” or “Nomadland” or “One Night in Miami” could swoop in for the win. But until we see “Judas and the Black Messiah,” it’s hard to tell if the film lives up to the hype.
Overall, the race is still in a holding pattern. We are going to need to see the industry step in to clear all of this confusion up and bring clarity to the Oscar race. As of now, the smart bet is to say they will go for something more accessible than challenging. Either way, the Academy can’t really go wrong in selecting any of the below films.
Best Picture Predictions (as of January 2021)
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
Mank
Nomadland
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Promising Young Woman
Minari