'The Frontrunners': 2021 Oscar Predictions, Round II - The Industry Strikes Back
AS WE MOVE ANOTHER MONTH CLOSER TO THE ACADEMY AWARDS, WE’VE GOTTEN A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE AWARDS RACE THANKS TO PLENTY OF INDUSTRY NOMINATIONS.
Over the last couple of months, the Oscars race has been dominated by films nominated by critics’ groups and the winners. Though many of these films will be in the awards conversation, it just doesn’t seem realistic to suggest that movies like “Sound of Metal” and “Promising Young Woman” would go on to win Hollywood’s biggest award. Heck, some groups were even awarding “Small Axe” from Steve McQueen, which will be running for the Emmys next year and not for the Oscars. As stated during our first round of predictions, it felt like we need to hear from the more influential “industry” awards to make a case for what could be the actual contenders in this race.
Over the last two weeks, the Golden Globes nominations, Screen Actors Guild nominations, and the Critics’ Choice nominations came out, with plenty of similarities and differences when it came to the Best Picture race. David Fincher’s “Mank” led the nomination tallies at both the Globes and Critics’ Choice. This has been my prediction from the beginning, that “Mank” would be the lead in the clubhouse come Oscar morning with the most nominations. It didn’t do too well at SAG, but it still landed a nomination for Gary Oldman, and the ensemble didn’t really have a shot to get in over others. While “Mank” still doesn’t feel like it will win Best Picture, the overall showcase suggests that Fincher may have the Best Director prize from the HFPA and Critics’ Choice in his hands.
A movie that over-performed in various spots would be “Promising Young Woman” which landed four Golden Globe nominations, including Best Director and Best Picture. It was also able to have a good day with the Critics’ Choice, but that is not a surprise because the movie has been a critical darling with strong support behind it. That being said, it failed to show up in SAG Ensemble, even though Carey Mulligan earned herself a Best Actress nomination. While “Promising Young Woman” has landed in some areas, and overperformed in others, I hesitate to put in many categories still outside of Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay. Maybe this is underestimating the film, but with its polarizing nature, and the fact the Academy is still very old and white, it is hard for me to see them going head over heels for it.
“Nomadland” also performed well at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, but was not able to land SAG Ensemble. But the difference between the two films is “Nomadland” is more universal in its themes than “Promising Young Woman”, and could be an across the board contender when all is said and done. The same would go for Lee Isaac Chung’s “Minari”, a movie that gained so much momentum over the last couple weeks, that I’ve moved it firmly in my Best Picture lineup. Besides the asinine arguments of it being a foreign film or not (which “Parasite”, with its win last year, seems to have thrown out the window anyway), it’s a beautiful story that landed a big SAG nomination that I think will translate to a Best Picture nomination.
Actually, when you look at it, I expect all of the films that we nominated for SAG ensemble to make it into the Best Picture lineup. Along with “Minari”, it includes “Da 5 Bloods”, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, “One Night in Miami”, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7”. Even though “Ma Rainey”, “One Night in Miami”, and especially “Da 5 Bloods” missed out on major nominations during the week in various categories, the biggest branch of the Academy, the actors, gave them their highest honor and that’s really all they need. One film that got hurt a lot these last two weeks was “Judas and the Black Messiah”, which only landed nominations for Daniel Kaluuya across the board and failed to make traction in the Best Picture race. With it releasing so late in the race, it seems to be a victim of not being seen by everyone at large, which will ultimately lead to an underperforming result with the Academy.
Finally, the film I’ve had in the number one spot for the last four months, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, still seems dominant. Despite what you may read on Film Twitter, I’ve said from the start this was a movie that will translate across the board with all who see it and it didn’t miss a beat at any of the award shows so far. It landed in all the spots it needed to, positioning it perfectly for a Best Picture win come April. Though many may be angry at the fact that it currently sits in the #1 spot, you have to understand that this is a movie designed for the traditional Academy member to fall in love with and give their vote to. And these predictions aren’t about what I may think are the films that deserve to win the Oscars, but rather they tell you all how I feel the race will play out. As it currently stands, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is in pole position. It could change, but at this point, it’s unlikely to by the time the winners are announced in a month.
P.S.: Keep an eye out for “The Father” and “News of the World”. Something tells me those are the next two films that will go on a run of awards love. Just a hunch.
Best Picture Predictions (as of February 2021)
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Mank
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Da 5 Bloods
Minari
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
The Father